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THE HOME INFORMATION TERMINAL

by John McCarthy
Visionaries have often proposed that homes 1. The average citizen is a TV fan and
be equipped with information terminals each doesn't read anyway. In the first place, our
consisting of a typewriter keyboard and a screen system doesn't need so many subscribers to be
capable of displaying one or more pages of print economical. Secondly, after I have described
and pictures. The terminal is to be all the bells and whistles, you will see that
connected by the telephone system to a time- even the TV fan will be tempted, and you - oh
shared computer which in turn has access to files socially conscious reader - may even want to
containing all books, magazines, newspapers, coerce him into buying one or coerce the
catalogs, airline schedules, much additional government into giving him one for free.
public information not now kept, and various
files personal to the user. 2. How can you think of one more convenience
and comfort when the world will come to an end in
Through the terminal the user can get ten years unless menaces A, B, and C are dealt
any information he wants, can buy and sell, with immediately. In the first place, I don't
could communicate with persons and think the world is about to come to an end or even
institutions, and process information in other that it is getting worse, and we Americans like
useful ways. Such a system has never come about new gadgets. In the second place, you will see
because it costs too much, but with each advance that the new information system will make the
in technology, it becomes more feasible. I public more responsive to the careful
think that the technology of computers, time- reasoning of you good guys and more immune to
sharing, terminals, and application programming the blatant propaganda of those bad guys.
has advanced to the point where realistic
estimates are possible of the remaining advances In order to see the effects of the new
necessary to make home consoles feasible and information system, suppose that all book and
useful. In this paper, I shall discuss the uses newspaper information were so distributed. What
of the home terminal, some potential beneficial changes would occur?
effects on society, estimate how far we are from
a system people will pay for, and advocate some At present, a newspaper or a book is a
pilot projects, some standardization efforts, package produced by a large organization.
and some laws and regulations to prevent In our new system, the physical production
monopoly and secure adequate competition. disappears, allowing a much smaller organization
to put out the same packages of text and
We can start with ordinary reading. To pictures. Moreover, the user does not face a one
get a newspaper or book, I type its name or number shot decision to buy Life or Look. He will be
and the first page appears. The most obvious able to read the "cover" or table of contents
benefits are: of each, read such items as strike his fancy, and
the system will bill him for what he reads
1. I can get any document instantly. from each source. In fact, since the cost of
keeping a file of information in the computer and
2. My house isn't full of paper to be making it publicly available will be small, even
sorted and put on shelves and dusted or put in the a high school student could compete with the
trash. Trees aren't cut down, and air pollution New Yorker if he could write well enough and if
doesn't result from burning the stuff. word of mouth and mention by reviewers
brought him to public attention. What, then,
Some immediately apparent disadvantages are: is a publication in the new information system?

1. The expense. I'll deal with this later. A publication is an organization that puts
out a list of material it has edited and
2. I can't read in bed. The book size recommends to its readers. It helps its authors
portable terminal will come later. A household produce material that it thinks will suit the
may require several terminals or perhaps we may readers, and it has a financial arrangement with
have to compromise with sin and provide a hard them about splitting the proceeds.
copy terminal after all.
There can be a wide variety of
There are two other immediate negative publications of different standards of writing and
reactions: editing and different budgets for carrying out

these activities. However, they will all be To summarize: the new information
equally accessible to all readers, and the only system will promote intellectual competition by
justification for an expensive editorial reducing the price of entry, will permit readers
organization will be that it can produce a more to be selective, and will allow authors to
popular package. The price of reading a package revise material until they are satisfied that
can be set by the publishers. it withstands criticism as well as it ever will.
This should make intellectual life more
A reader may feel that he needs help in interesting.
finding his way through the totality of
literature available to him. Various people will The financial aspect of writing would
be eager to make a living by providing it. A presumably be as follows: a piece of
bookstore or library is a program that when written material has a price for reading it.
called shows the "covers" of publications. (This price may be zero for amateur writing,
Reviewers will produce lists for him and make political propaganda, advertising, and for
money when he reads their lists or by scientific journals). The reader's account is
kickbacks from the publishers. "Reading advisers" debited and the account to which the
under some catchier name will offer to generate material belongs is automatically credited.
lists just for him according to a profile of his The reader will have the system balk at what he
interests. considers overpriced material.

Advertising in the sense of something that The new information system will have a
can force itself on the attention of a reader will profound effect on buying and selling.
disappear because it will be too easy to read Sellers of movies, groceries, automobiles,
via a program that screens out undesirable plumbing services and cures for baldness will find
material. However, people will still want to know it advantageous to list their wares in the
what is for sale and will still want to see information system together with current prices
the seller's story about why they should buy it. and availability. The user can place an order
Probably, Life will still be able to get money through the system as he can by telephone, but he
from advertisers; many people will still want to can do much more:
know what is advertised in Life, but those who
don't want to know will be able to avoid it 1. He can call on someone's program to
automatically. scan the sellers of sports cars and propose what
it considers the best deal. This program might
Another effect is the possibility of even negotiate with programs representing the
frequent revisions of articles and books. sellers.
An author can take into account new facts or other
people's criticisms, and the revision will 2. He can tell the system whether
take effect immediately. This raises last year's cure for baldness worked and a get a
1984ish possibilities, so it must be provided summary of the opinions of those who bothered
that old versions remain available. Those who to record their opinions of the cure he
suspect the whole system will keep their own contemplates trying now.
copies of favorite material in their private
files, on microfilm, or even on paper. 3. He can make an airplane or hotel
reservation by interacting with a program the
Public controversy can be carried out more airline or hotel reservation company has written
expeditiously than at present. If I read to tell him what is available. He need not
something that seems controversial, I can ask the suffer the delays you now get when you call an
system if anyone has filed a reply. This, airline or travel agent at peak hours.
together with an author's ability to revise
his original statement, will lead people to 4. Individual design and construction
converge on considered positions more quickly than services can be offered through the system
at present even if they do not come to actual although this requires the development of computer
agreement. controlled manufacturing techniques for various
types of article. The idea is that automated
Famous authors will not need publishers design programs can produce designs for
because their loyal readers will have the system articles meeting individual specifications.
find their stuff automatically.

Either by himself or in consultation with an 3. Filing. Keeping personal files in the
expert, an individual would use the system to computer has great advantages once documents can
produce a design and display how it would look and be entered without retyping them, either
possibly how it would perform. Candidates because they have been prepared in a computer
for individual design include clothing, furniture, readable form or because a suitable page reader is
boats, electronic equipment, houses, and even available. Namely, one can retrieve any
cars. The system would then produce the document on the basis of its characteristics
instructions for controlling machine tools, fabric without having taken the trouble to file it
cutters, and also printed instructions for the properly in the first place.
hand parts of the operation. In general, it
should be possible to make single objects at 4. Education. Computer aided instruction
little more cost than present mass produced (CAI) has advanced to the point that a number of
objects. In some cases, there would even be courses or aids to traditional courses have been
savings, because mass production requires developed and have been shown to be useful.
estimates of demand that are often wrong The main obstacle to the widespread use of
resulting in inventories that are expensive to CAI is economic, but new developments in
sell or even have to be sold at a loss; the cost display technology and communications give
of this is made up by a general increase in a reasonable probability of cost-effective
prices. systems within this decade. There is no special
problem in having these systems available in the
There are many more useful services home as well as at school. This would be
that can be offered through the new information aided by standardizing course writing languages.
system and again the system is conducive to Again, we should try to stimulate competition
competition. Writing and storing a program and by encouraging the offering of courses in
announcing its availability can be a very low particular subjects independent of the schools.
capital operation, and the system can collect
whatever price has been set for its use. The development of such a system is
probably inevitable (unless it is forbidden
We could go on listing services that would by law) as soon as costs come down to the point
come to be offered in a fully developed system, where it is profitable for time-sharing service
but now we shall list some services to smaller bureaus to offer services to individuals.
groups of users that are cheaper to provide and However, favorable policies will bring this about
which will help get the system started. sooner and will make the effects better.

1. Calculation and facilities for The main danger to be avoided is the
writing, running, and debugging computer creation of services of limited scope that
programs. This doesn't interest the general through some avoidable feature cannot be expanded
public much, but it is the present bread and to provide the services mentioned here and many
butter of the time-sharing service bureaus more. Another problem is to avoid
that will grow into the new information system. monopolies; the intrinsic nature of the system
At present, these service bureaus offer very permits any person who can write computer programs
convenient way of doing small scientific and to compete with large organizations in
engineering calculations, but do not offer inventing and offering imaginative services, but
reasonable prices for big computations, and are one can worry that the system might develop
only beginning to offer useful services to commercially in some way that would prevent
business firms. that. In general, we should try to develop
information services in such a way as will enhance
2. Editing. Anyone who writes the individuality of its users.
(writers, journalists, scientists, advertising
men, engineers and students) will benefit from Between us and the home information
using an editor program. It allows easy system lie a number of problems, some in
revision, can be made to check spelling, developing suitable low cost terminals, some
grammar, and punctuation, and will produce in programming technology of time-sharing,
justified or other forms of elegant output and some in the economics and politics of
also indexes. communication systems, and some in the attitude
of the public and government towards innovation.

In the following sections we shall discuss these per second would take 20 seconds to transmit a
problems. typed page and about four times that for a page of
a dictionary. Eight times this rate is obtained
How we get there from here. over conditioned voice grade lines, and this
might be barely adequate. Perhaps a better bet
1. Consoles. is the transmission facility planned for the
Picturephone service now being introduced
The quality and price of display experimentally, but the cost of this service
consoles is rapidly improving. At present, one for long holding times is not yet
can add a display console with keyboard to our determined. The most economical system might be a
laboratory system for about $700, but to add specially designed store and forward system
another port on the system so that the number of configured to give fast turn around for short
consoles active at one time is increased by one messages.
costs about $2500. A reasonable display console
that can be located at the end of a telephone line Whether such a service will be made
now costs about $10,000. These consoles are available depends on political as well as
adequate for any of the services mentioned in technical factors. For example, if on the basis
the previous section, although for reading of present plans, the digital communication
purposes, it would be desirable to be able to market is divided by regulatory action among AT&T
display more than 35 typed lines at a time. and its potential competitors, it might turn out
that no-one is obliged or even allowed to offer
In my opinion, the cost of an adequate the service required for home terminals at a
display terminal that can be located at the end of reasonable cost.
a telephone line will be in the $500 to $1000
range by 1975 even without a market of the 3. Computer technology.
size of the potential home terminal market.
The business, engineering and science, and At present, computer technology can
government markets will be large enough and offer the services required for the home
price sensitive enough to bring this about. terminal at a reasonable cost, provided
computer configurations are optimized for the
Another contender as a terminal is the purpose, provided reasonable load factors can be
plasma panel, but the above estimates are based obtained, and provided there are reasonable
on CRT terminals with a mini-computer and an economies of scale. Unfortunately, IBM
integrated circuit memory. computers are organized in such a way that time
sharing is very expensive because of their
2. Communications. interrupt structure, their expensive terminal
multiplexors, and their dedication to the
In the United States, the archaic half duplex method of
facilities for digital communications are communication. The other major computer
growing rapidly but in a rather disorderly way manufacturers such as CDC, General Electric, and
because of the multiplicity of requirements Univac are not in much better shape since they
of the different applications. Some offer for time sharing, machines that were
applications such as credit verification require optimized for other purposes. Smaller companies
very low cost short communications with turn like DEC are in a somewhat better position.
around times of seconds. Others require very low However, none of these difficulties are
cost per bit but can stand delays of minutes and permanent, and better organized computers may be
hence are candidates for low performance expected once the factors in computer design
store and forward systems. The terminal systems that make for good cost-performance in time
require long holding times, short response sharing become clearer to the manufacturers.
times, and much higher transmission rates from the
computer to the user than in the other direction. The present magnetic disk storage units are
a bit marginal in cost effectiveness for use with
For the purposes of the home terminal, home terminals. Thus storage on the new IBM 3330
the speeds of transmission over present disk would cost a user about $.03 per month to
unconditioned voice grade circuits are a bit too store a typewritten page making storage of
low for such applications as reading. 1200 bits extensive personal files expensive and private

copies of books at $5 to$10 per month sharing services is that it is not a natural
prohibitively expensive. This would not be too monopoly. Communication is cheap enough
expensive for national libraries, but it would be for teletype based time-sharing so that with
economically very difficult to get enough readers local multiplexors, time-sharing bureaus can
to support the storage of books on magnetic compete all over the United States. In principal,
disk files in the near future. it should be possible to have world wide
competition. The major force that might tend to
Fortunately, much larger files are becoming reduce competition is the exclusive possession of
available. The laser file made by Precision proprietary programs or files. Therefore, it
Instruments Inc. is claimed to store a trillion is desirable to separate the ownership of
bits and costs $1,000,000. This comes to about $4 programs performing services from the ownership
per book which is reasonable even for single of the service bureaus themselves and to
copies. Mass production of such files will reduce encourage enough compatibility between different
the cost even further. time-sharing systems so that the owner of a
service program could provide it on a number
4. Computer programming. of machines. It is also important that important
files be accessible and modifiable with
The basic technology of writing time suitable protections by actions initiated on
sharing technology is reasonably well developed in other machines than the one that maintains the
that cost effective systems have been written, file.
but there is still a lot of chasing of willow-the-
wisps and quite bad time-sharing systems are 6. Needs for research and development.
often produced by otherwise competent firms.
Before the programming required to offer the The hardware required for home consoles will
services mentioned in the first part of be too expensive for extensive systems for
this paper can be accomplished some further probably another five years. In the
advances need to be made including at least the meantime, research and development should be
following: undertaken in the following areas:

1. The interactive and file reference 1. Standardization of the interfaces of
aspects of programming languages and time sharing time-sharing systems and their languages.
systems need to be standardized so that an
interactive system written in one system can be 2. Experimentation with services. At
used in another that uses different hardware and present, it is very difficult to get support for
a different time sharing system. Without this it development of generally useful services unless
will be very expensive for new user services to either it can be claimed that disaster will
get large markets unless some particular time result from failure to support the activity or
sharing system gets a monopoly. that the supporting organization will itself
make a profit. This political fact is one of the
2. A system needs to be developed for reasons for the concentration on military
representing text in a computer that will include technology in the recent past.
the full variety of alphabets, type fonts and
character sizes and also be adaptable to 3. Research aimed at devising ways of co-
diagrams, drawings and photographs. The consoles ordinating the great variety of time-sharing
also have to be adapted to this variety of styles. services into a mutually communicating
This is an ultimate requirement; much can be done network. Neither sufficient understanding nor
with texts that are just regarded as sequences of sufficient political or commercial force is
latin letters. available to cause the development of time-
sharing services to proceed according to a
3. The biggest task, however, is the unified plan. Nevertheless, computers are
application programming itself. flexible enough so that originally
incompatible systems can be made to communicate
5. Commercial organization. and use each other's services. Experiments
with the ARPA network that provides
From a social point of view, one of the communication between U.S. Government sponsored
attractive features of the provision of time- research computers will provide useful
information.

7. Comments on the conference.

In general, the conference showed a poor
situation in the scientific and technological
community and also the public affairs community
regarding technology and the human future. There
were a few technically competent but rather
narrow surveys of the state and prospects of
particular tool areas of technology. There was
much random doom-saying and denunciation of
currently fashionable whipping boys. There was a
fair amount of opinion that certain things should
not be done. There was an almost total
lack of imaginative discussion of the
opportunities technology offers us to improve
human life. This lack was especially notable
in those individuals and organizations that are
supposed to be professionally concerned with the
matter.

This essay represents a small effort to
redress the balance.